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Talk:Wild Card
From FFXI Wiki
I'm confused by the math here:
1 or 2 result: 2/16 chance (each)
3, 4, 5, or 6 result: 3/16 chance (each)
I thought the probability of rolling a 1 would be (2/6)*(1/6) = 2/36. Same for 2, so the probability of rolling a 1 or 2 would be (2/36)+(2/36) = 4/36 = 1/9.
Similarly the probability of rolling a 3 would be (1/6)+((2/6)*(1/6)) = 8/36 = 2/9. Same for each of 4, 5, and 6.
Yes the change to the odds is incorrect as it lists all 16 outcomes and attempts to compute the odds from the 16 possible roll combinations, but doesn't take into account that the combinations starting with 1 or 2 are less likely and treats those 12 combinations as each being equally as likely to be rolled as an initial 3, 4, 5, or 6.
Snickysnacks (talk) 02:51, 10 September 2024 (UTC)
